Terraforming Mars: Mass, forcing, and industrial throughput constraints
Slava G. Turyshev
APS Open Sci. 1, 000029 (2026) - Published 28 May, 2026
Terraforming Mars can be evaluated with system-level constraints linking target pressure and composition to volatile inventory, target temperature to radiative control, climate agents to throughput and power, and persistence to collapse, escape, and geochemical sinks. We use transparent order-of-magnitude scalings to compare endogenous release, synthetic supergreenhouse gases, collision-induced absorption, engineered aerosols and nanoparticles, orbital reflectors, and regional paraterraforming. Mars requires of atmosphere per millibar of global mean surface pressure, so open-surface human-relevant pressures require -scale gas inventories. Accessible endogenous is best treated as an order-of-tens-of-millibar resource: A representative 20 mbar case gives 10 K warming and does not close melt-class climates or breathable composition. Mean surface temperatures of 250–273 K require, in a gray/window-weighted architecture model, effective window-weighted longwave optical depth of order unity to a few, or direct absorbed-solar forcing of order , implying -scale reflector area. A human-breathable open atmosphere is dominated by and buffer gas: kPa and kPa imply and , respectively, and water electrolysis requires reversible work before inefficiencies and sink-management costs. These bounds apply directly to abiotic industrial oxygenation and to the terminal atmospheric inventories that any human-breathable open Mars must contain; biological bootstrapping can change the path to useful habitability, but not the final and buffer-gas inventory required for an open breathable atmosphere. Under known inventories, regional and covered-area habitability is the physically favored staged path; no surveyed abiotic global open-atmosphere pathway simultaneously closes pressure, composition, warming, power, throughput, retention, sink, and operations constraints.
