Probabilistic forecasts of extreme heatwaves using convolutional neural networks in a regime of lack of data
George Miloshevich, Bastien Cozian, Patrice Abry, Pierre Borgnat, and Freddy Bouchet
Phys. Rev. Fluids 8, 040501 (2023) - Published 4 April, 2023
Forecasting extreme climate events, for instance extreme heat waves, is key for society and a scientific challenge. In this paper we propose a novel machine learning approach that successfully forecasts extreme heat waves up to 45 days before the end of the event. The approach allows for dynamical process studies. A key message is that optimal machine learning forecasts require a large amount of data. The image shows temperature (colors) and geopotential height (lines) anomalies for a typical atmospheric situation.
Influenza transmission in the guinea pig model is insensitive to the ventilation airflow speed: Evidence for the role of aerosolized fomites
Sima Asadi, Nassima Gaaloul ben Hnia, Ramya S. Barre, Anthony S. Wexler, William D. Ristenpart, and Nicole M. Bouvier
Phys. Rev. Fluids 8, 040502 (2023) - Published 20 April, 2023
Increasing the ventilation airflow speed is commonly assumed to decrease the probability of airborne infectious disease transmission, since higher airflow means more fresh air and lower concentrations of airborne pathogens. Here we demonstrate experimentally that increasing the airflow speed by a factor of 10 had no impact on the probability of influenza transmission between guinea pigs. We use perfect-mixing and Gaussian plume models to interpret this result as evidence that the virus is primarily carried on virus-contaminated dust, rather than in expiratory aerosols as commonly assumed.
































