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Logarithmic dispersion at marginal stability in collective attention

Keisuke Okamura*

  • *Contact author: okamura@alumni.lse.ac.uk

Phys. Rev. E 114, L052302 – Published 12 November, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/c9ny-57bd

Abstract

How cross-sectional heterogeneity evolves in nonequilibrium populations of competing, aging units is a collective question that cannot be resolved from a representative trajectory or the ensemble mean alone. Analysis of more than two million age-aligned English Wikipedia pageview trajectories from six yearly cohorts spanning 2015–2020 shows that the variance of logarithmic attention grows linearly with lnt, while the ensemble mean relaxes on the same logarithmic clock. This dispersion law recurs across all six cohorts and is systematically favored over the tested power-law alternative; temporal increments also exhibit consistent antipersistent scaling. A complementary trajectory-level analysis reveals broad, non-Gaussian variation in effective relaxation rates, showing that this collective regularity coexists with heterogeneous observed trajectories. A minimal scale-free stochastic model combines mean relaxation with self-affine temporal fluctuations of age-dependent amplitude. Within this model class, logarithmic spreading emerges when fluctuation accumulation balances aging attenuation, defining the marginal boundary between algebraic broadening and saturation. Together, age-resolved cross-sectional dispersion and temporal-increment scaling provide a transferable ensemble-level criterion for distinguishing amplification, marginal spreading, and saturation in other populations of competing, aging units.

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