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Phase lag in epidemics on a network of cities

G. Rozhnova1,2, A. Nunes1, and A. J. McKane1,2

  • 1Centro de Física da Matéria Condensada and Departamento de Física, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, P-1649-003 Lisboa Codex, Portugal
  • 2Theoretical Physics Division, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, United Kingdom

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Phys. Rev. E 85, 051912 – Published 22 May, 2012

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.85.051912

Abstract

We study the synchronization and phase lag of fluctuations in the number of infected individuals in a network of cities between which individuals commute. The frequency and amplitude of these oscillations is known to be very well captured by the van Kampen system-size expansion, and we use this approximation to compute the complex coherence function that describes their correlation. We find that, if the infection rate differs from city to city and the coupling between them is not too strong, these oscillations are synchronized with a well-defined phase lag between cities. The analytic description of the effect is shown to be in good agreement with the results of stochastic simulations for realistic population sizes.

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Phys. Rev. E 85, 051912– Published 22 May, 2012
  • Received 28 February 2012

©2012 American Physical Society

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