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Explaining the high number of infected people by dengue in Rio de Janeiro in 2008 using a susceptible-infective-recovered model

Tiago Botari1, S. G. Alves2, and Edson D. Leonel3

  • 1Departamento de Física, UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP, Brazil
  • 2Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Viçosa 36570-000, Viçosa, MG, Brazil
  • 3Departamento de Estatística, Matemática Aplicada e Computação, UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP, Brazil

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Phys. Rev. E 83, 037101 – Published 18 March, 2011

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.83.037101

Abstract

An epidemiological model for dengue propagation using cellular automata is constructed. Dependence on temperature and rainfall index are taken into account. Numerical results fit pretty well with the registered cases of dengue for the city of Rio de Janeiro for the period from 2006 to 2008. In particular, our approach explains very well an abnormally high number of cases registered in 2008. A phase transition from endemic to epidemic regimes is discussed.

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Phys. Rev. E 83, 037101– Published 18 March, 2011
  • Received 13 October 2010

©2011 American Physical Society

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