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Forecasting the population properties of merging black holes

Viola De Renzis1,2,*, Francesco Iacovelli3, Davide Gerosa1,2, Michele Mancarella4, and Costantino Pacilio1,2

  • *Contact author: v.derenzis@campus.unimib.it
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Phys. Rev. D 111, 044048 – Published 18 February, 2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevD.111.044048

Abstract

Third-generation gravitational-wave detectors will observe up to millions of merging binary black holes. With such a vast dataset, stacking events into population analyses will arguably be more important than analyzing single sources. We present the first application of population-level Fisher-matrix forecasts tailored to third-generation gravitational-wave interferometers. We implement the formalism first derived by Gair et al. [Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 519, 2736 (2023)] and explore how future experiments such as Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer will constrain the distributions of black-hole masses, spins, and redshift. Third-generation detectors will be transformative, improving constraints on the population hyperparameters by several orders of magnitude compared to current data. At the same time, we highlight that a single third-generation observatory and a network of detectors will deliver qualitatively similar performances. Obtaining precise measurements of some population features (e.g., peaks in the mass spectrum) will require only a few months of observations while others (e.g., the fraction of binaries with aligned spins) will instead require years if not decades. We argue population forecasts of this kind should be featured in white papers and feasibility studies aimed at developing the science case of future gravitational-wave interferometers.

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Phys. Rev. D 111, 044048– Published 18 February, 2025
  • Received 22 October 2024
  • Accepted 24 January 2025
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