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The physics of climate variability and climate change

Michael Ghil and Valerio Lucarini

Michael Ghil

  • Geosciences Department and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Ecole Normale Supérieure and PSL University, F-75231 Paris Cedex 05, France and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095-1565, USA

Valerio Lucarini

  • Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading RG66AX, United Kingdom, Centre for the Mathematics of Planet Earth, University of Reading, Reading RG66AX, United Kingdom, and CEN—Institute of Meteorology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg 20144, Germany

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Rev. Mod. Phys. 92, 035002 – Published 31 July, 2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.92.035002

Abstract

The climate is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex, and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject to various external forcings, natural as well as anthropogenic. This review covers the observational evidence on climate phenomena and the governing equations of planetary-scale flow and presents the key concept of a hierarchy of models for use in the climate sciences. Recent advances in the application of dynamical systems theory, on the one hand, and nonequilibrium statistical physics, on the other hand, are brought together for the first time and shown to complement each other in helping understand and predict the system’s behavior. These complementary points of view permit a self-consistent handling of subgrid-scale phenomena as stochastic processes, as well as a unified handling of natural climate variability and forced climate change, along with a treatment of the crucial issues of climate sensitivity, response, and predictability.

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Physics Subject Headings (PhySH)

Q&A

The Complex Variability of Climate

Published 31 July, 2020

Climate scientist Michael Ghil describes gaps in our understanding of climate change.  

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Article Text

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Rev. Mod. Phys. 92, 035002– Published 31 July, 2020
  • Received 1 October 2019
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