A precise form of the quantum-mechanical time-energy uncertainty relation is derived. For any given initial state (density operator), time-dependent Hamiltonian, and subspace of reference states, it gives upper and lower bounds for the probability of finding the system in a state in that subspace at a later or earlier time. The bounds involve only the initial data, the energy uncertainty in the initial state, and the energy uncertainty in the reference subspace. They describe how fast the state enters or leaves the reference subspace. They are exact if, but not only if, the initial state or the projection onto the reference subspace commutes with the Hamiltonian. The basic tool used in the proof is a simple inequality for expectation values of commutators, which generalizes the usual uncertainty relation. By introducing suitable comparison dynamics (trial propagators), the bounds can be made arbitrarily tight. They represent a time-dependent variational principle, in terms of trial propagators, which provides explicit error estimates and reproduces the exact time evolution when one varies over all trial propagators. As illustrations, we derive accurate lower bounds on the escape time of a particle out of a potential well modeling a quantum dot, and the total time before which a ${\mathrm{He}}^{+}$ ion moving in a uniform magnetic field loses its electron.

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