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Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline: Tipping Small Scales under Global Warming

Ruijian Gou1,2, Gerrit Lohmann2,3,*, and Lixin Wu1,4

  • *Contact author: Gerrit.Lohmann@awi.de
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Phys. Rev. Lett. 133, 034201 – Published 16 July, 2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.133.034201

Abstract

The Atlantic circulation is a key component of the global ocean conveyor that transports heat and nutrients worldwide. Its likely weakening due to global warming has implications for climate and ecology. However, the expected changes remain largely uncertain as low-resolution climate models currently in use do not resolve small scales. Although the large-scale circulation tends to weaken uniformly in both the low-resolution and our high-resolution climate model version, we find that the small-scale circulation in the North Atlantic changes abruptly under global warming and exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Furthermore, the future Atlantic Ocean circulation in the high-resolution model version expands in conjunction with a sea ice retreat and strengthening toward the Arctic. Finally, the cutting-edge climate model indicates sensitive shifts in the eddies and circulation on regional scales for future warming and thus provides a benchmark for next-generation climate models that can get rid of parametrizations of unresolved scales.

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Corrections

12 June, 2025

Correction: Typographical errors in the display equations for the geostrophic velocity (ug,vg) given in the section entitled “Eddy kinetic energy" have been fixed.

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Research News

Ocean Currents Resolved on Regional Length Scales

Published 16 July, 2024

Using a detailed simulation, researchers reveal how climate change will affect the regional dynamics of the conveyor-belt-like circulation of water through the Atlantic Ocean.

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Phys. Rev. Lett. 133, 034201– Published 16 July, 2024
  • Received 19 December 2023
  • Accepted 10 June 2024
  • Corrected 12 June 2025
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