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Measurement prospects for the pair-instability mass cutoff with gravitational waves

Matthew Mould1,2,3,4,*, Jack Heinzel2,3,4, Sofía Álvarez-López2,3,4, Cailin Plunkett2,3,4, Noah E. Wolfe2,3,4, and Salvatore Vitale2,3,4

  • *Contact author: matthew.mould@nottingham.ac.uk
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Phys. Rev. D 113, 103021 – Published 11 May, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/sqy9-nnqq

Abstract

Pair-instability supernovae leave behind no compact remnants, resulting in a predicted gap in the distribution of stellar black-hole masses. Gravitational waves from binary black-hole mergers probe the relevant mass range and analyses of the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA catalog (GWTC-4) indicate a possible mass cutoff at 40−50M⊙. However, the robustness of this result remains unclear. To this end, using full Bayesian parameter estimation, we simulate gravitational-wave catalogs with and without such a mass cutoff and then test whether its presence or absence is correctly inferred with parametric population models. For catalogs similar to GWTC-4, confident identification of a cutoff is not guaranteed, but the best constraints among our simulations are compatible with results from GWTC-4 when the model includes a cutoff. Conversely, spurious identification of a cutoff is unlikely. For catalogs expected by the end of the O4 observing run, uncertainty in the cutoff mass is reduced by ≳20%, but a cutoff at 40−50M⊙ yields only a lower bound on the C12(α,γ)16O reaction rate, our most stringent constraints on the S factor at 300 keV being S300≳125 keV b at 90% credibility. Relative uncertainties on the Hubble parameter H0 from gravitational-wave data alone can still be up to 100%. We also analyze GWTC-4 with the nonparametric pixelpop population model, finding that some mass features are more prominent than in parametric models but a sharp cutoff is not required. However, the parametric model passes a likelihood-based predictive test in GWTC-4 and the pixelpop results are consistent with those from our simulated catalogs with a cutoff. Such tests are necessary to make astrophysical claims from gravitational-wave catalogs.

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Phys. Rev. D 113, 103021– Published 11 May, 2026
  • Received 11 February 2026
  • Accepted 31 March 2026
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