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New model for long-term forecasting of galactic cosmic rays

David Pelosi1,*, Fernando Barão2, Bruna Bertucci1, Emanuele Fiandrini1, Miguel Orcinha3, and Nicola Tomassetti1

  • *Contact author: david.pelosi@dottorandi.unipg.it
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Phys. Rev. D 114, 063005 – Published 3 September, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/npfk-lwy9

Abstract

The modulation of Galactic cosmic rays, driven by the evolution of the heliospheric magnetic field, strongly influences the intensity of cosmic rays reaching near-Earth space. Characterizing this process is crucial both for advancing our understanding of cosmic-ray transport and for assessing radiation exposure and related hazards in space environments. Here we present a newly developed forecasting framework built on a numerical description of charged particle transport in the heliosphere and its dependence on solar activity, designed for the long-term forecasting of Galactic cosmic-ray fluxes. It solves a one-dimensional, spherically symmetric form of the Parker transport equation, including diffusion, solar-wind advection, and adiabatic energy losses. The model has been validated using multispecies flux measurements from space-based experiments: PAMELA, AMS-02, and ACE. Its strategy is based on Hilbert-Huang transform filtering and cross-correlation between delayed solar proxies and effective model parameters. Our charge-sign- and rigidity-dependent parametric description of the diffusion-advection processes yields good overall agreement with the data, as shown by the reconstruction uncertainty. The robustness of this approach is validated across a broad set of multichannel datasets covering different particle species, energy ranges, and phases of solar activity, supporting its applicability to space radiation monitoring and forecasting. Furthermore, when coupled with solar-proxy forecasting models, it enables decadal-scale predictions of Galactic cosmic-ray fluxes, thereby supporting long-term planning and radiation-risk assessment for future space missions.

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Phys. Rev. D 114, 063005– Published 3 September, 2026
  • Received 16 April 2026
  • Accepted 9 July 2026
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