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Physics potential of the IceCube Upgrade for atmospheric neutrino oscillations

R. Abbasi ¹⁶, M. Ackermann ⁶³, J. Adams¹⁷, S. K. Agarwalla ^40,*, J. A. Aguilar ¹⁰, M. Ahlers ²¹, J. M. Alameddine ²², S. Ali ³⁵, N. M. Amin⁴⁴ et al. (IceCube Collaboration^¶)

N. M. Amin⁴⁴, K. Andeen ⁴², C. Argüelles ¹³, Y. Ashida⁵³, S. Athanasiadou⁶³, S. N. Axani ⁴⁴, R. Babu²³, X. Bai ⁵⁰, J. Baines-Holmes⁴⁰, A. Balagopal V.^40,64, S. W. Barwick ²⁹, S. Bash²⁶, V. Basu ⁵³, R. Bay⁶, J. J. Beatty ^19,20, J. Becker Tjus ^9,†, P. Behrens¹, J. Beise ⁶⁵, C. Bellenghi ²⁶, B. Benkel⁶³, S. BenZvi ⁵², D. Berley¹⁸, E. Bernardini ^48,‡, D. Z. Besson³⁵, E. Blaufuss ¹⁸, L. Bloom ⁵⁹, S. Blot ⁶³, I. Bodo⁴⁰, F. Bontempo³⁰, J. Y. Book Motzkin ¹³, C. Boscolo Meneguolo ^48,‡, S. Böser ⁴¹, O. Botner ⁶⁵, J. Böttcher ¹, J. Braun⁴⁰, B. Brinson ⁴, Z. Brisson-Tsavoussis³², R. T. Burley², D. Butterfield⁴⁰, M. A. Campana ⁴⁹, K. Carloni ¹³, J. Carpio ^33,34, S. Chattopadhyay^40,*, N. Chau¹⁰, Z. Chen⁵⁶, D. Chirkin ⁴⁰, S. Choi⁵³, B. A. Clark ¹⁸, A. Coleman ⁶⁵, P. Coleman¹, G. H. Collin¹⁴, D. A. Coloma Borja ⁴⁸, A. Connolly^19,20, J. M. Conrad ¹⁴, R. Corley⁵³, D. F. Cowen ^60,61, C. De Clercq ¹¹, J. J. DeLaunay ⁶⁰, D. Delgado ¹³, T. Delmeulle¹⁰, S. Deng¹, P. Desiati ⁴⁰, K. D. de Vries ¹¹, G. de Wasseige ³⁷, T. DeYoung ²³, J. C. Díaz-Vélez ⁴⁰, S. DiKerby ²³, M. Dittmer⁴³, A. Domi²⁵, L. Draper⁵³, L. Dueser¹, D. Durnford ²⁴, K. Dutta⁴¹, M. A. DuVernois ⁴⁰, T. Ehrhardt⁴¹, L. Eidenschink²⁶, A. Eimer ²⁵, P. Eller ²⁶, E. Ellinger⁶², D. Elsässer ²², R. Engel^30,31, H. Erpenbeck ⁴⁰, W. Esmail⁴³, S. Eulig¹³, J. Evans¹⁸, P. A. Evenson⁶⁴, K. L. Fan¹⁸, K. Fang⁴⁰, K. Farrag¹⁵, A. R. Fazely ⁵, A. Fedynitch ⁵⁸, N. Feigl⁸, C. Finley ⁵⁵, L. Fischer ⁶³, D. Fox ⁶⁰, A. Franckowiak ⁹, S. Fukami⁶³, P. Fürst ¹, J. Gallagher ³⁹, E. Ganster ¹, A. Garcia ¹³, M. Garcia⁶⁴, G. Garg^40,*, E. Genton ^13,37, L. Gerhardt⁷, A. Ghadimi ⁵⁹, C. Glaser ⁶⁵, T. Glüsenkamp ⁶⁵, J. G. Gonzalez⁶⁴, S. Goswami^33,34, A. Granados²³, D. Grant¹², S. J. Gray ¹⁸, S. Griffin ⁴⁰, S. Griswold ⁵², K. M. Groth ²¹, D. Guevel ⁴⁰, C. Günther ¹, P. Gutjahr ²², C. Ha ⁵⁴, C. Haack ²⁵, A. Hallgren ⁶⁵, L. Halve ¹, F. Halzen ⁴⁰, L. Hamacher¹, M. Ha Minh²⁶, M. Handt¹, K. Hanson⁴⁰, J. Hardin¹⁴, A. A. Harnisch²³, P. Hatch³², A. Haungs ³⁰, J. Häußler ¹, K. Helbing ⁶², J. Hellrung ⁹, B. Henke²³, L. Hennig²⁵, F. Henningsen ¹², L. Heuermann¹, R. Hewett¹⁷, N. Heyer ⁶⁵, S. Hickford⁶², A. Hidvegi⁵⁵, C. Hill ¹⁵, G. C. Hill², R. Hmaid¹⁵, K. D. Hoffman¹⁸, D. Hooper⁴⁰, S. Hori ⁴⁰, K. Hoshina^40,§, M. Hostert ¹³, W. Hou ³⁰, T. Huber ³⁰, K. Hultqvist ⁵⁵, K. Hymon ^22,58, A. Ishihara¹⁵, W. Iwakiri ¹⁵, M. Jacquart²¹, S. Jain ⁴⁰, O. Janik ²⁵, M. Jansson³⁷, M. Jeong ⁵³, M. Jin ¹³, N. Kamp ¹³, D. Kang ³⁰, W. Kang ⁴⁹, X. Kang⁴⁹, A. Kappes ⁴³, L. Kardum²², T. Karg ⁶³, M. Karl ²⁶, A. Karle ⁴⁰, A. Katil²⁴, T. Katori ³⁶, M. Kauer ⁴⁰, J. L. Kelley ⁴⁰, M. Khanal⁵³, A. Khatee Zathul ⁴⁰, A. Kheirandish ^33,34, H. Kimku⁵⁴, J. Kiryluk ⁵⁶, C. Klein²⁵, S. R. Klein ^6,7, Y. Kobayashi ¹⁵, A. Kochocki ²³, R. Koirala ⁶⁴, H. Kolanoski ⁸, T. Kontrimas ²⁶, L. Köpke⁴¹, C. Kopper ²⁵, D. J. Koskinen ²¹, P. Koundal ⁶⁴, M. Kowalski ^8,63, T. Kozynets²¹, N. Krieger⁹, J. Krishnamoorthi ^40,*, T. Krishnan ¹³, K. Kruiswijk ³⁷, E. Krupczak²³, A. Kumar ⁶³, E. Kun⁹, N. Kurahashi ⁴⁹, N. Lad ⁶³, C. Lagunas Gualda ²⁶, L. Lallement Arnaud¹⁰, M. Lamoureux ³⁷, M. J. Larson ¹⁸, F. Lauber ⁶², J. P. Lazar ³⁷, K. Leonard DeHolton ⁶¹, A. Leszczyńska ⁶⁴, J. Liao ⁴, C. Lin⁶⁴, Y. T. Liu ⁶¹, M. Liubarska²⁴, C. Love⁴⁹, L. Lu ⁴⁰, F. Lucarelli ²⁷, W. Luszczak ^19,20, Y. Lyu ^6,7, J. Madsen ⁴⁰, E. Magnus ¹¹, Y. Makino⁴⁰, E. Manao ²⁶, S. Mancina ^48,∥, A. Mand ⁴⁰, I. C. Mariş ¹⁰, S. Marka ⁴⁶, Z. Marka ⁴⁶, L. Marten¹, I. Martinez-Soler ¹³, R. Maruyama ⁴⁵, J. Mauro ³⁷, F. Mayhew ²³, F. McNally ³⁸, J. V. Mead²¹, K. Meagher ⁴⁰, S. Mechbal⁶³, A. Medina²⁰, M. Meier ¹⁵, Y. Merckx¹¹, L. Merten ⁹, A. Millsop ³⁶, J. Mitchell⁵, L. Molchany⁵⁰, T. Montaruli ²⁷, R. W. Moore ²⁴, Y. Morii¹⁵, A. Mosbrugger²⁵, M. Moulai ⁴⁰, D. Mousadi⁶³, E. Moyaux³⁷, T. Mukherjee ³⁰, R. Naab ⁶³, M. Nakos⁴⁰, U. Naumann⁶², J. Necker ⁶³, L. Neste ⁵⁵, M. Neumann⁴³, H. Niederhausen ²³, M. U. Nisa ²³, K. Noda ¹⁵, A. Noell¹, A. Novikov⁶⁴, A. Obertacke Pollmann ¹⁵, V. O’Dell ⁴⁰, A. Olivas¹⁸, R. Orsoe²⁶, J. Osborn⁴⁰, E. O’Sullivan ⁶⁵, V. Palusova⁴¹, H. Pandya ⁶⁴, A. Parenti¹⁰, N. Park ³², V. Parrish²³, E. N. Paudel ⁵⁹, L. Paul ⁵⁰, C. Pérez de los Heros ⁶⁵, T. Pernice⁶³, J. Peterson⁴⁰, M. Plum ⁵⁰, A. Pontén⁶⁵, V. Poojyam⁵⁹, Y. Popovych⁴¹, J. Prado González ²¹, M. Prado Rodriguez⁴⁰, B. Pries ²³, R. Procter-Murphy¹⁸, G. T. Przybylski⁷, L. Pyras ⁵³, C. Raab ³⁷, J. Rack-Helleis⁴¹, N. Rad ⁶³, M. Ravn⁶⁵, K. Rawlins³, Z. Rechav⁴⁰, A. Rehman ⁶⁴, I. Reistroffer⁵⁰, E. Resconi ²⁶, S. Reusch⁶³, C. D. Rho ⁵⁷, W. Rhode ²², L. Ricca ³⁷, B. Riedel ⁴⁰, A. Rifaie⁶², E. J. Roberts², S. Robertson^6,7, M. Rongen ²⁵, A. Rosted ¹⁵, C. Rott ⁵³, T. Ruhe ²², L. Ruohan²⁶, D. Ryckbosch²⁸, J. Saffer ³¹, D. Salazar-Gallegos ²³, P. Sampathkumar³⁰, A. Sandrock ⁶², G. Sanger-Johnson ²³, M. Santander ⁵⁹, S. Sarkar ⁴⁷, J. Savelberg¹, M. Scarnera³⁷, P. Schaile²⁶, M. Schaufel¹, H. Schieler ³⁰, S. Schindler ²⁵, L. Schlickmann ⁴¹, B. Schlüter⁴³, F. Schlüter ¹⁰, N. Schmeisser⁶², T. Schmidt¹⁸, F. G. Schröder ^30,64, L. Schumacher ²⁵, S. Schwirn¹, S. Sclafani ¹⁸, D. Seckel⁶⁴, L. Seen ⁴⁰, M. Seikh ³⁵, S. Seunarine ⁵¹, P. A. Sevle Myhr ³⁷, R. Shah ⁴⁹, S. Shefali³¹, N. Shimizu ¹⁵, B. Skrzypek ⁶, R. Snihur⁴⁰, J. Soedingrekso²², A. Søgaard²¹, D. Soldin ⁵³, P. Soldin ¹, G. Sommani ⁹, C. Spannfellner²⁶, G. M. Spiczak ⁵¹, C. Spiering ⁶³, J. Stachurska ²⁸, M. Stamatikos²⁰, T. Stanev⁶⁴, T. Stezelberger ⁷, T. Stürwald⁶², T. Stuttard ²¹, G. W. Sullivan ¹⁸, I. Taboada ⁴, S. Ter-Antonyan ⁵, A. Terliuk²⁶, A. Thakuri⁵⁰, M. Thiesmeyer ⁴⁰, W. G. Thompson ¹³, J. Thwaites ⁴⁰, S. Tilav⁶⁴, K. Tollefson ²³, S. Toscano ¹⁰, D. Tosi⁴⁰, A. Trettin⁶³, A. K. Upadhyay ^40,*, K. Upshaw⁵, A. Vaidyanathan⁴², N. Valtonen-Mattila ^9,65, J. Valverde ⁴², J. Vandenbroucke ⁴⁰, T. Van Eeden⁶³, N. van Eijndhoven ¹¹, L. Van Rootselaar²², J. van Santen ⁶³, J. Vara⁴³, F. Varsi³¹, M. Venugopal³⁰, M. Vereecken³⁷, S. Vergara Carrasco¹⁷, S. Verpoest ⁶⁴, D. Veske⁴⁶, A. Vijai¹⁸, J. Villarreal ¹⁴, C. Walck⁵⁵, A. Wang ⁴, E. H. S. Warrick ⁵⁹, C. Weaver ²³, P. Weigel¹⁴, A. Weindl³⁰, J. Weldert⁴¹, A. Y. Wen ¹³, C. Wendt ⁴⁰, J. Werthebach²², M. Weyrauch³⁰, N. Whitehorn ²³, C. H. Wiebusch ¹, D. R. Williams⁵⁹, L. Witthaus ²², M. Wolf ²⁶, G. Wrede²⁵, X. W. Xu⁵, J. P. Yanez ²⁴, Y. Yao ⁴⁰, E. Yildizci⁴⁰, S. Yoshida ¹⁵, R. Young³⁵, F. Yu ¹³, S. Yu ⁵³, T. Yuan ⁴⁰, A. Zegarelli ⁹, S. Zhang ²³, Z. Zhang⁵⁶, P. Zhelnin ¹³, and P. Zilberman⁴⁰ (IceCube Collaboration^¶)

¹III. Physikalisches Institut, RWTH Aachen University, D-52056 Aachen, Germany
²Department of Physics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, 5005, Australia
³Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Alaska Anchorage, 3211 Providence Drive, Anchorage, Alaska 99508, USA
⁴School of Physics and Center for Relativistic Astrophysics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332, USA
⁵Department of Physics, Southern University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70813, USA
⁶Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
⁷Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
⁸Institut für Physik, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, D-12489 Berlin, Germany
⁹Fakultät für Physik und Astronomie, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, D-44780 Bochum, Germany
¹⁰Université Libre de Bruxelles, Science Faculty CP230, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium
¹¹Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Dienst ELEM, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium
¹²Department of Physics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6, Canada
¹³Department of Physics and Laboratory for Particle Physics and Cosmology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA
¹⁴Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA
¹⁵Department of Physics and The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics, Chiba University, Chiba 263-8522, Japan
¹⁶Department of Physics, Loyola University Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60660, USA
¹⁷Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand
¹⁸Department of Physics, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA
¹⁹Department of Astronomy, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210, USA
²⁰Department of Physics and Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210, USA
²¹Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
²²Department of Physics, TU Dortmund University, D-44221 Dortmund, Germany
²³Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824, USA
²⁴Department of Physics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2E1, Canada
²⁵Erlangen Centre for Astroparticle Physics, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, D-91058 Erlangen, Germany
²⁶Physik-department, Technische Universität München, D-85748 Garching, Germany
²⁷Département de physique nucléaire et corpusculaire, Université de Genève, CH-1211 Genève, Switzerland
²⁸Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Gent, B-9000 Gent, Belgium
²⁹Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Irvine, California 92697, USA
³⁰Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Astroparticle Physics, D-76021 Karlsruhe, Germany
³¹Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Experimental Particle Physics, D-76021 Karlsruhe, Germany
³²Department of Physics, Engineering Physics, and Astronomy, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario K7L 3N6, Canada
³³Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Nevada 89154, USA
³⁴Nevada Center for Astrophysics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Nevada 89154, USA
³⁵Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045, USA
³⁶Department of Physics, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom
³⁷Centre for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology—CP3, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
³⁸Department of Physics, Mercer University, Macon, Georgia 31207-0001, USA
³⁹Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
⁴⁰Department of Physics and Wisconsin IceCube Particle Astrophysics Center, University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
⁴¹Institute of Physics, University of Mainz, Staudinger Weg 7, D-55099 Mainz, Germany
⁴²Department of Physics, Marquette University, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53201, USA
⁴³Institut für Kernphysik, Universität Münster, D-48149 Münster, Germany
⁴⁴Bartol Research Institute and Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware 19716, USA
⁴⁵Department of Physics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA
⁴⁶Columbia Astrophysics and Nevis Laboratories, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027, USA
⁴⁷Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PU, United Kingdom
⁴⁸Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia Galileo Galilei, Università Degli Studi di Padova, I-35122 Padova PD, Italy
⁴⁹Department of Physics, Drexel University, 3141 Chestnut Street, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104, USA
⁵⁰Physics Department, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, South Dakota 57701, USA
⁵¹Department of Physics, University of Wisconsin, River Falls, Wisconsin 54022, USA
⁵²Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York 14627, USA
⁵³Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah 84112, USA
⁵⁴Department of Physics, Chung-Ang University, Seoul 06974, Republic of Korea
⁵⁵Oskar Klein Centre and Dept. of Physics, Stockholm University, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
⁵⁶Department of Physics and Astronomy, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York 11794-3800, USA
⁵⁷Department of Physics, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon 16419, Republic of Korea
⁵⁸Institute of Physics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, 11529, Taiwan
⁵⁹Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487, USA
⁶⁰Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA
⁶¹Department of Physics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA
⁶²Department of Physics, University of Wuppertal, D-42119 Wuppertal, Germany
⁶³Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Platanenallee 6, D-15738 Zeuthen, Germany
⁶⁴Bartol Research Institute and Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware 19716, USA
⁶⁵Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Box 516, SE-75120 Uppsala, Sweden

^*Also at Institute of Physics, Sachivalaya Marg, Sainik School Post, Bhubaneswar 751005, India.
^†Also at Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden.
^‡Also at INFN Padova, I-35131 Padova, Italy.
^§Also at Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-0032, Japan.
^∥Present address: INFN Padova, I-35131 Padova, Italy.
^¶Contact author: analysis@icecube.wisc.edu

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Phys. Rev. D 113, 072009 – Published 15 April, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/nnjw-jp1n

Abstract

The IceCube Upgrade is an extension of the existing IceCube Neutrino Observatory and will be deployed in the 2025–2026 austral summer. It will significantly improve the sensitivity of the detector to atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The existing 86-string IceCube array contains a dense in-fill known as DeepCore which is optimized to measure neutrinos with energies down to a few GeV. The IceCube Upgrade will consist of seven new densely instrumented strings placed within the DeepCore volume to further enhance the performance in the GeV energy range. The additional strings will feature new optical modules, each containing multiple photomultiplier tubes (PMTs), in contrast to the existing modules that each contain a single PMT. This will more than triple the number of PMT channels with respect to the current IceCube configuration, allowing for improved detection efficiency and reconstruction performance at GeV energies. We describe necessary updates to simulation, event selection, and reconstruction to accommodate the higher data rates observed by the upgraded detector and the addition of multi-PMT modules. We determine the expected sensitivity of the IceCube Upgrade to the atmospheric neutrino oscillation parameters $\sin^{2} θ_{23}$ and $Δ m_{32}^{2}$ , the appearance of tau neutrinos and the neutrino mass ordering. The IceCube Upgrade will provide neutrino oscillation measurements that are of similar precision to those from accelerator experiments, while providing complementarity by probing higher energies and longer baselines, and with different sources of systematic uncertainties.

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Article Text

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Phys. Rev. D 113, 072009– Published 15 April, 2026

Vol. 113, Iss. 7 — 1 April 2026

Received 18 September 2025
Accepted 8 December 2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/nnjw-jp1n

Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article’s title, journal citation, and DOI. Funded by SCOAP³.

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Physics potential of the IceCube Upgrade for atmospheric neutrino oscillations

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