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Slow rolling down the curvature: A reassessment of the Planck constraints on ϕ2 inflation in a closed universe

Enrico Specogna1,*, Tatevik Vardanyan2,†, William Giarè1,‡, and Eleonora Di Valentino1,§

  • 1School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Sheffield, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield S3 7RH, United Kingdom
  • 2Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany

  • *Contact author: especogna1@sheffield.ac.uk
  • Contact author: tatevik@thp.uni-koeln.de
  • Contact author: w.giare@sheffield.ac.uk
  • §Contact author: e.divalentino@sheffield.ac.uk

Phys. Rev. D 113, 123526 – Published 12 June, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/dy2d-z3cc

Abstract

We revisit the cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints on the spatial curvature of the Universe, assessing how they change when the curvature parameter and the primordial inflationary scalar spectrum are treated consistently within theoretically motivated frameworks. Instead of relying on the phenomenological parametrization commonly used to capture curvature effects at the largest scales, we present a case study based on closed quadratic inflation, where the primordial spectrum is derived in full generality and in a gauge-invariant manner. Within this framework, we analyze both the plik public release 3 (PR3) and camspec PR4 Planck CMB likelihoods and find that the constraints on ΩK shift toward spatial flatness. In plik the preference for ΩK<0 decreases from 3.5σ to 2.5σ, while in camspec it reduces further to 2σ. At large angular scales (<10), our model explains the low- power suppression anomaly, notably improving the fit to the quadrupole. However, the reduced preference for highly negative values of ΩK only partially accounts for the lensing anomaly at high multipoles, worsening the fit to the plik spectrum at small scales. By contrast, in the camspec PR4 spectrum, where the lensing anomaly is less pronounced, the model yields an overall improvement. Our analysis highlights a key conceptual point: closed-inflation models tie the curvature parameter to the inflationary dynamics and the primordial spectrum, enforcing consistency conditions that do not necessarily allow for the large deviations from flatness seen in phenomenological parametrizations. In the case of quadratic inflation, these restrictions reduce the apparent evidence for negative curvature reported by earlier analyses, while allowing for a mildly closed geometry.

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