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  • Letter
  • Open Access
  • Access by Xinjiang University

Gravitational-wave astronomy requires population-informed parameter estimation

Matthew Mould1,*, Rodrigo Tenorio2,3, and Davide Gerosa2,3

  • *Contact author: matthew.mould@nottingham.ac.uk
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Phys. Rev. D 114, L021302 – Published 16 July, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/blhd-ktbf

Abstract

Gravitational-wave events are interpreted in terms of Bayesian posteriors for their source properties inferred under unphysical reference priors. Though these parameter estimates are important intermediate data products for downstream analyses, we demonstrate that they are generically biased and therefore should not be used for astrophysical interpretation directly, as is common. Hierarchical parameter estimation is the solution, as joint analysis of the entire catalog of observations reduces statistical uncertainties and actually informs the correct prior, with population-informed event parameters now appropriate for astrophysical interpretation. As an example, we show how the most extreme measurements from a catalog can be derived and used to identify exceptional events from previous and ongoing observing runs, pointing out they are more informative about the population than any individual event. Using LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA data, we thus demonstrate that population inference is not optional to interpret gravitational-wave observations.

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Phys. Rev. D 114, L021302– Published 16 July, 2026
  • Received 17 April 2026
  • Accepted 6 July 2026
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