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Treating solar model uncertainties: A consistent statistical analysis of solar neutrino models and data

Evalyn Gates

Lawrence M. Krauss

Martin White

  • Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics and Enrico Fermi Institute, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637

  • Departments of Physics and Astronomy, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio 44106

  • Center for Particle Astrophysics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720-7304

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Phys. Rev. D 51, 2631 – Published 15 March, 1995

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevD.51.2631

Abstract

We describe how to consistently incorporate solar model uncertainties, along with experimental errors and correlations, when analyzing solar neutrino data to derive confidence limits on parameter space for proposed solutions of the solar neutrino problem. Our work resolves ambiguities and inconsistencies in the previous literature. As an application of our methods we calculate the masses and mixing angles allowed by the current data for the proposed MSW solution using both Bayesian and frequentist methods, allowing purely for solar model flux variations, to compare with previous work. We also show that solutions which simply suppress the B8 solar neutrino flux are strongly disfavored and have a likelihood ratio of at most 10−8 compared to the best MSW solution. Finally, we consider the effects of including metal diffusion in the solar models and also discuss implications for future experiments.

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Phys. Rev. D 51, 2631– Published 15 March, 1995
  • Received 27 June 1994

© 1995 American Physical Society

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