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Multiwavelength analysis of the progenitor of GRB 230307A via a Bayesian model comparison

Viviane Alfradique*, Rodrigo da Mata, Juan C. Rodríguez-Ramírez, and Clécio R. Bom

  • *Contact author: vivianeapa@cbpf.com
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Phys. Rev. D 114, 023041 – Published 23 July, 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/6k96-lqvx

Abstract

GRB 230307A is one of the brightest long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) ever detected, yet its progenitor remains uncertain due to the variety of plausible astrophysical scenarios. In this work, we investigate four possible progenitors for GRB 230307A: a binary neutron star (BNS), a neutron-star/white-dwarf (NS-WD) system, a neutron-star/black-hole merger, and a tidal disruption event involving a white dwarf and a supermassive black hole. Additionally, we explore three distinct central engine models powering the kilonova associated with the BNS: radioactive decay of r-process nuclei in a two-component ejecta model, a magnetar-driven model including magnetic dipole spin down, and a combined model of magnetar spin down with Ni56 radioactive decay. We perform Bayesian multiwavelength light curve analyses using physically motivated models and priors and evaluate model performance through Bayes factors and leave-one-out cross-validation scores. Our results show a statistical preference for a BNS or NS-WD progenitor producing a kilonova powered by a magnetar and Ni56 decay, characterized by a Ni56 mass of ∼4×10−4M⊙ and an ejecta mass of 0.06M⊙. Furthermore, under the assumption of a BNS origin within this model, we infer binary component masses of m1=1.32−0.06+0.05M⊙ and m2=1.24−0.04+0.02M⊙, with a dimensionless tidal deformability of Λ˜=437−265+251. From the component mass posteriors, we infer that the observed offset can be explained by a natal kick as long as the systemic velocity is nearly aligned with the prekick orbital motion. In this case, the required kick velocity (comoving frame) and binary separation range within vk′∼100–150  km/s and a0∼2–2.5R⊙, respectively.

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Phys. Rev. D 114, 023041– Published 23 July, 2026
  • Received 17 October 2025
  • Accepted 26 May 2026
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